Creating a Communication Framework for FACETs: How Probabilistic Hazard Information Affected Warning Operations in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

Trujillo-Falcón, Joseph E.; Reedy, Justin; Klockow-McClain, Kimberly E.; Berry, Kodi L.; Stumpf, Gregory J.; Bates, Alyssa V.; LaDue, James G.

doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0136.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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Creating a Communication Framework for FACETs: How Probabilistic Hazard Information Affected Warning Operations in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

2022
By Trujillo-Falcón, Joseph E. ; Reedy, Justin ; Klockow-McClain, Kimberly E. ; ...
Source: Weather, Climate, and Society, 14(3), 881-892

[PDF-1.56 MB]

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Journal Title:

Weather, Climate, and Society
Personal Author:

Trujillo-Falcón, Joseph E. ; Reedy, Justin ; Klockow-McClain, Kimberly E. ; Berry, Kodi L. ; Stumpf, Gregory J. ; ... More +

Trujillo-Falcón, Joseph E. ; Reedy, Justin ; Klockow-McClain, Kimberly E. ; Berry, Kodi L. ; Stumpf, Gregory J. ; Bates, Alyssa V. ; LaDue, James G. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) Less -
Description:

Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research.
Keywords:

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Decision Making Weather Forecasting Probability Distribution Probability Models Societal Impacts
Source:

Weather, Climate, and Society, 14(3), 881-892
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0136.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4320204 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4590373

Grant no. NA21OAR4320204 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4590373 Less -
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urn:sha-512:3f54b60a2b2a9d08fa73118f8fd73b0c06b48a399576d1b13076fb6d135c5982970f892f2cac8dcfeeb0c040871f2d30d092918cb300a81a4460aba794262fa2
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Creating a Communication Framework for FACETs: How Probabilistic Hazard Information Affected Warning Operations in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

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