Examining CO2 model observation residuals using ACT‐America data

Gerken, Tobias; Feng, Sha; Keller, Klaus; Lauvaux, Thomas; DiGangi, Joshua P.; Choi, Yonghoon; Baier, Bianca; Davis, Kenneth J.

doi:10.1029/2020JD034481

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Examining CO2 model observation residuals using ACT‐America data

2021
By Gerken, Tobias ; Feng, Sha ; Keller, Klaus ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD034481

[PDF-1.63 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Gerken, Tobias ; Feng, Sha ; Keller, Klaus ; Lauvaux, Thomas ; DiGangi, Joshua P. ; ... More +

Gerken, Tobias ; Feng, Sha ; Keller, Klaus ; Lauvaux, Thomas ; DiGangi, Joshua P. ; Choi, Yonghoon ; Baier, Bianca ; Davis, Kenneth J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:

Atmospheric urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0003 inversion typically relies on the specification of prior flux and atmospheric model transport errors, which have large uncertainties. Here, we used ACT-America airborne observations to compare urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0004 model observation mismatch in the eastern U.S. and during four climatological seasons for the mesoscale WRF(-Chem) and global scale CarbonTracker/TM5 (CT) models. Models used identical surface carbon fluxes, and CT was used as urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0005 boundary condition for WRF. Both models showed reasonable agreement with observations, and urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0006 residuals follow near symmetric peaked (i.e., non-Gaussian) distribution with near-zero bias of both models (CT: urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0007 ppm; WRF: urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0008 ppm). We also found large magnitude residuals at the tails of the distribution that contribute considerably to overall bias. Atmospheric boundary-layer biases (1–10 ppm) were much larger than free tropospheric biases (0.5–1 ppm) and were of same magnitude as model-model differences, whereas free tropospheric biases were mostly governed by urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0009 background conditions. Results revealed systematic differences in atmospheric transport, most pronounced in the warm and cold sectors of synoptic systems, highlighting the importance of transport for urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0010 residuals. While CT could reproduce the principal urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0011 dynamics associated with synoptic systems, WRF showed a clearer distinction for urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57287:jgrd57287-math-0012 differences across fronts. Variograms were used to quantify spatial correlation of residuals and showed characteristic residual length scales of approximately 100–300 km. Our findings suggest that inclusion of synoptic weather-dependent and non-Gaussian error structure may benefit inversion systems.
Keywords:

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Carbon dioxide
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD034481
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034481
Document Type:

Journal Article
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urn:sha256:3a1b43d31637e444067235202832865733482c3b0761351089fe6a75fdf83909
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/44763/noaa_44763_DS1.pdf
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	carbontracker.noaa.gov	htm

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