Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Widlansky, Matthew J.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Stott, Lowell

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7

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Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

2017
By Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu ; Timmermann, Axel ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; ...
Source: Sci Rep 7, 6568 (2017)

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Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu ; Timmermann, Axel ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ; Stott, Lowell

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu ; Timmermann, Axel ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ; Stott, Lowell Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

CIMAR (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate’s response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10–23 and 10–45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.
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Climatology Droughts Wildfires
Source:

Sci Rep 7, 6568 (2017)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7
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Journal Article
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North America
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:16832162a6764e968d04c72b4d65ff8e68c796bdee579f6b06e0273e86093ac7
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Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

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