Details:

Journal Title:
Natural Hazards
Personal Author:
Li, Ming ; Zhang, Fan ; Barnes, Samuel ; Wang, Xiaohong
Li, Ming ; Zhang, Fan ; Barnes, Samuel ; Wang, Xiaohong Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; Sea Grant
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; Sea Grant Less -
Sea Grant Program:
MDU (Maryland Sea Grant)
Description:
Hurricane Isabel (2003) generated record flooding around Chesapeake Bay and caused extensive damage in rural Eastern Shore of Maryland and metropolitan cities like Baltimore. Regional atmosphere-ocean models are used to investigate the storm surge and coastal inundation that might be produced by a similar storm under the warmer ocean temperature and higher sea level projected for the future climate. Warming causes the storm to intensify, with the minimum sea level pressure decreasing from 955 mb during Isabel to similar to 950 mb in 2050 and similar to 940 mb in 2100. The stronger storm and higher mean sea level amplify the peak water level by similar to 0.5 m in 2050 and similar to 1.2 m in 2100. The total inundated area over Chesapeake Bay expands by 26% in 2050 and 47-62% in 2100. Over the rural Dorchester County, the inundated area shows moderate expansion in the future climate but the average inundation depth is 30% higher in 2050 and 50-70% higher in 2100. The number of houses flooded increases from 1420 during Hurricane Isabel to 1850/2190 in 2100 under the climate change scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5/8.5. The inundated area in Baltimore is 2.2 km(2) during Hurricane Isabel, expands to 5.1 km(2) in 2050, and reaches 8.1/9.1 km(2) in 2100 under RCP 4.5/8.5. The estimated flood damage to Baltimore increases from $29 million in 2003 to $98/100 million in 2050 and $150/162 million in 2100 under the median projection of RCP 4.5/8.5. These estimates are subjected to uncertainty due to different climate change scenarios and different climate model projections.
Keywords:
[+]
Coasts Economic Aspects Flooding Sea Level Coastal inundation
Source:
Nat Hazards 103, 2561–2588
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04096-4
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA14OAR4170090
Place as Subject:
Maryland
Rights Information:
Accepted Manuscript
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:2404d64fd3748aa1a36974484f417e3c6bbaca8337245ba2ef06f530eff51207
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/41881/noaa_41881_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

• No Additional Files

More +