Long range prediction and the stratosphere

Scaife, Adam A.; Baldwin, Mark P.; Butler, Amy H.; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Haynes, Peter; Karpechko, Alexey Yu; Lim, Eun-Pa; Noguchi, Shunsuke; Perlwitz, Judith; Polvani, Lorenzo; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Scinocca, John; Sigmond, Michael; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Son, Seok-Woo; Thompson, David W. J.

doi:10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

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Long range prediction and the stratosphere

2021
By Scaife, Adam A. ; Baldwin, Mark P. ; Butler, Amy H. ; ...
Source: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623

[PDF-1.75 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Personal Author:

Scaife, Adam A. ; Baldwin, Mark P. ; Butler, Amy H. ; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J. ; Domeisen, Daniela I. V. ; ... More +

Scaife, Adam A. ; Baldwin, Mark P. ; Butler, Amy H. ; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J. ; Domeisen, Daniela I. V. ; Garfinkel, Chaim I. ; Hardiman, Steven C. ; Haynes, Peter ; Karpechko, Alexey Yu ; Lim, Eun-Pa ; Noguchi, Shunsuke ; Perlwitz, Judith ; Polvani, Lorenzo ; Richter, Jadwiga H. ; Scinocca, John ; Sigmond, Michael ; Shepherd, Theodore G. ; Son, Seok-Woo ; Thompson, David W. J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.
Keywords:

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Forecasting Stratosphere Troposphere
Source:

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
Document Type:

Journal Article
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:4d030b588dec6db1aa4e02fb2ae67cc0cd50871f4a0a05edf51027353e1f81f8
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/41008/noaa_41008_DS1.pdf
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