Long range prediction and the stratosphere

Details

• Journal Title:
  Encyclopedia of Geosciences
• Personal Author:
  Scaife, Adam A. ; Baldwin, Mark P. ; Butler, Amy H. ; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J. ; Domeisen, Daniela I. V. ; Garfinkel, Chaim I. ; Hardiman, Steven C. ; Haynes, Peter ; Karpechko, Alexey Yu ; Lim, Eun-Pa ; Noguchi, Shunsuke ; Perlwitz, Judith ; Polvani, Lorenzo ; Richter, Jadwiga H. ; Scinocca, John ; Sigmond, Michael ; Shepherd, Theodore G. ; Son, Seok-Woo ; Thompson, David W. J.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory)
• Description:
  Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.
• Keywords:
  Forecasting Stratosphere Troposphere
• Source:
  Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:4d030b588dec6db1aa4e02fb2ae67cc0cd50871f4a0a05edf51027353e1f81f8
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/41008/noaa_41008_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.75 MB ]