Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?

Lee, Jiwoo; Planton, Yann Y.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Guilyardi, Eric; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; McPhaden, Michael J.; Pallotta, Giuliana

doi:10.1029/2021GL095041

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Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?

2021
By Lee, Jiwoo ; Planton, Yann Y. ; Gleckler, Peter J. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095041
Series: PMEL contribution ; 5276

[PDF-1.95 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lee, Jiwoo ; Planton, Yann Y. ; Gleckler, Peter J. ; Sperber, Kenneth R. ; Guilyardi, Eric ; ... More +

Lee, Jiwoo ; Planton, Yann Y. ; Gleckler, Peter J. ; Sperber, Kenneth R. ; Guilyardi, Eric ; Wittenberg, Andrew T. ; McPhaden, Michael J. ; Pallotta, Giuliana Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model’s ability to capture observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package. Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.
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Climatology CLIVAR ENSO Metrics CMIP6 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP)
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095041
Series:

PMEL contribution ; 5276
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095041
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:de592bacc86e6c5965f63eb19c74970cb2f40bf0f41c12fcff9321d1e0c974e3
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Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?

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