The Tampa Bay region, with nearly 700 miles of shoreline1 and 3.2 million residents - many of whom live near Tampa Bay or the Gulf of Mexico - is highly vulnerable to the potential effects of sea level rise (SLR). Citizens, emergency managers and regional leaders have been accustomed to thinking of coastal hazards in terms of the episodic effects of hurricanes or coastal storms; however, it is also important for local governments and regional agencies to consider the long-term, sustained effects of SLR on real property, natural habitats, and our ability to sustain growth in the regional economy. The Tampa Bay regional economy is closely tied to both the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay. It is valued at $170 billion, with $51 billion directly influenced by the bay itself2. In a report recently published by the World Bank, Tampa was identified as one of the ten coastal metropolitan areas most vulnerable to sea level rise and subsequent flooding. The report rated cities in terms of the overall cost of potential damage and assumed that no adaptation strategies would be implemented in response to SLR3. Regional measurements show that the Tampa Bay region is already experiencing sea level rise and there is broad scientific consensus that this trend will continue on into the next century. Cities that choose not to implement adaptation strategies, including those in the Tampa Bay region, may experience the following conditions which will likely incur substantial social and economic costs: - Flooding of streets, homes, businesses, hospitals, schools, emergency shelters, etc., - Shoreline and beach erosion, - Impacts to the operations of coastal drainage systems, - Impairment of coastal water supplies including saltwater intrusion of groundwater and threats to coastal water treatment facilities and infrastructure, and - Shifts in habitats and reduced ecosystem services. The economic costs of inaction in the face of SLR must be weighed carefully against the potential (and equally substantial) costs of implementing adaptation strategies, technological solutions and infrastructure investments. However, local governments in the Tampa Bay region should feel confident that there are viable opportunities for implementing adaptation strategies that increase the region’s resilience to sea level rise and other coastal hazards. These opportunities benefit from a common projection of regional SLR that enables coordinated planning and policy efforts to protect public safety, health, and quality of life; providing the scientific rationale for the most appropriate projection(s) of SLR in the Tampa Bay region is the purpose of this recommendation.​The Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP), formed in spring 2014, is an ad hoc network of scientists and resource managers working in the Tampa Bay region (Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Pasco counties). The goal of the advisory panel is to develop recommendations for local governments and regional agencies as they make decisions about responding to climate change and associated SLR. The CSAP has assessed the best available scientific data to determine a regional set of SLR projection scenarios through 2100. With this shared projection, local governments can coordinate, develop, and implement appropriate coastal adaptation and risk reduction strategies. This document briefly explains the technical methods used to produce SLR projections and offers the CSAP’s rationale for the most appropriate SLR projections to use for planning and policymaking throughout the Tampa Bay region. Representatives​ of the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Pane (CSAP): Libby Carnahan (Facilitator), Maya Burke, Lindsay Cross, Alison Adams, John Ferguson, Gay Mitchum, Nathaniel Plant, Charlie Paxton, Mark Hafen, Mark Luther, Heidi Stiller, Thomas Ruppert, Kelli Hammer-Levy, Margaret Rush, Rob Brown, Melissa Charbonneau, Glenn Landers.