Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st Century

Lopez, Hosmay; Lee, Sang-Ki; Kim, Dongmin; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Yeh, Sang-Wook

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7

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i

Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st Century

2022
By Lopez, Hosmay ; Lee, Sang-Ki ; Kim, Dongmin ; ...
Source: Nat Commun 13, 1915

[PDF-3.61 MB]

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Journal Title:

Nature Communications
Personal Author:

Lopez, Hosmay ; Lee, Sang-Ki ; Kim, Dongmin ; Wittenberg, Andrew T. ; Yeh, Sang-Wook

Lopez, Hosmay ; Lee, Sang-Ki ; Kim, Dongmin ; Wittenberg, Andrew T. ; Yeh, Sang-Wook Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) Less -
Description:

Future changes in the seasonal evolution of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during its onset and decay phases have received little attention by the research community. This work investigates the projected changes in the spatio-temporal evolution of El Niño events in the 21st Century (21 C), using a multi-model ensemble of coupled general circulation models subjected to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that El Niño is projected to (1) grow at a faster rate, (2) persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and (3) have stronger and distinct remote impacts via teleconnections. These changes are attributable to significant changes in the tropical Pacific mean state, dominant ENSO feedback processes, and an increase in stochastic westerly wind burst forcing in the western equatorial Pacific, and may lead to more significant and persistent global impacts of El Niño in the future.
Keywords:

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El Niño Current MAPP (Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections) Program
Source:

Nat Commun 13, 1915
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA20OAR4320472 ; Grant no. NA19OAR4310282

Grant no. NA20OAR4320472 ; Grant no. NA19OAR4310282 Less -
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:5ab05ffb854705dbc3ef6dc85076ef7204f0a83727e9a0e66023b9d147e75401
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/39127/noaa_39127_DS1.pdf
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Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st Century

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