Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of US West Coast Rainfall and El Nino: Understanding the 2015-2016 Event

Details

• Journal Title:
  Journal of Climate
• Personal Author:
  Cash, Benjamin A. ; Burls, Natalie J.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)
• Description:
  California experienced record-setting drought from 2012 to 2017. Based on both seasonal forecast models and historical associations, there was widespread expectation that the major El Niño event of 2015/16 would result in increased winter-season precipitation and break the drought. However, the 2015/16 winter rainy season ultimately resulted in slightly below-average precipitation and the drought continued. In this work we analyze data from both observations and seasonal forecasts made as part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) to better understand the general relationship between El Niño and U.S. West Coast rainfall, focusing on Southern California (SOCAL) rainfall, Pacific Northwest (PNW) rainfall, and the 2015/16 event.
• Keywords:
  Atmosphere-ocean Interaction Climate Prediction Drought Ensembles ENSO Seasonal Forecasting
• Source:
  Journal of Climate, 32(10), 2843–2868
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0181.1
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Grant no. NA14OAR4310160 ; Contract no. DG133W-12-CQ-0008/TO016
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:3b3641af525cfc98174dfaac5a6ab4c93038d4ee8bc9a84763d4c875c03e77f1
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/36807/noaa_36807_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 6.58 MB ]