Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of US West Coast Rainfall and El Nino: Understanding the 2015-2016 Event

Cash, Benjamin A.; Burls, Natalie J.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0181.1

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Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of US West Coast Rainfall and El Nino: Understanding the 2015-2016 Event

2019
By Cash, Benjamin A. ; Burls, Natalie J.
Source: Journal of Climate, 32(10), 2843–2868

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Cash, Benjamin A. ; Burls, Natalie J.

Cash, Benjamin A. ; Burls, Natalie J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

California experienced record-setting drought from 2012 to 2017. Based on both seasonal forecast models and historical associations, there was widespread expectation that the major El Niño event of 2015/16 would result in increased winter-season precipitation and break the drought. However, the 2015/16 winter rainy season ultimately resulted in slightly below-average precipitation and the drought continued. In this work we analyze data from both observations and seasonal forecasts made as part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) to better understand the general relationship between El Niño and U.S. West Coast rainfall, focusing on Southern California (SOCAL) rainfall, Pacific Northwest (PNW) rainfall, and the 2015/16 event.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmosphere-ocean Interaction Climate Prediction Drought Ensembles ENSO Seasonal Forecasting
Source:

Journal of Climate, 32(10), 2843–2868
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0181.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310160 ; Contract no. DG133W-12-CQ-0008/TO016

Grant no. NA14OAR4310160 ; Contract no. DG133W-12-CQ-0008/TO016 Less -
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:3b3641af525cfc98174dfaac5a6ab4c93038d4ee8bc9a84763d4c875c03e77f1
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/36807/noaa_36807_DS1.pdf
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Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of US West Coast Rainfall and El Nino: Understanding the 2015-2016 Event

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