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The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns: An Explanation Using Linear Rossby Wave Theory
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2019
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Source: Journal of Climate, 32(2), 531–548
[PDF-3.77 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Climate
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Description:The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. A previous study showed that particular MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential heights in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events, and demonstrated that this consistency is beneficial for extended numerical weather forecasts (i.e., lead times of two weeks to one month). In this study, we examine the physical mechanisms that lead some MJO phases to have more consistent teleconnections than others using a linear baroclinic model. The results show that MJO phases 2, 3, 6, and 7 consistently generate Pacific–North American (PNA)-like patterns on S2S time scales while other phases do not. A Rossby wave source analysis is applied and shows that a dipole-like pattern of Rossby wave source on each side of the subtropical jet can increase the pattern consistency of teleconnections due to the constructive interference of similar teleconnection signals.
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Source:Journal of Climate, 32(2), 531–548
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Rights Information:Other
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