Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate.

Drenkard, Elizabeth J; Stock, Charles; Ross, Andrew C; Dixon, Keith W; Adcroft, Alistair; Alexander, Michael; Balaji, Venkatramani; Bograd, Steven J; Butenschön, Momme; Cheng, Wei; Curchitser, Enrique; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di; Dussin, Raphael; Haynie, Alan C; Harrison, Matthew; Hermann, Albert; Hollowed, Anne; Holsman, Kirstin; Holt, Jason; Jacox, Michael G; Jang, Chan Joo; Kearney, Kelly A; Muhling, Barbara A; Buil, Mercedes Pozo; Saba, Vincent; Sandø, Anne Britt; Tommasi, Désirée; Wang, Muyin

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsab100

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate.

2021
By Drenkard, Elizabeth J ; Stock, Charles ; Ross, Andrew C ; ...
Source: ICES J Mar Sci 78(6): 1969-1987

[PDF-2.89 MB]

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Journal Title:

ICES Journal of Marine Science
Personal Author:

Drenkard, Elizabeth J ; Stock, Charles ; Ross, Andrew C ; Dixon, Keith W ; Adcroft, Alistair ; ... More +

Drenkard, Elizabeth J ; Stock, Charles ; Ross, Andrew C ; Dixon, Keith W ; Adcroft, Alistair ; Alexander, Michael ; Balaji, Venkatramani ; Bograd, Steven J ; Butenschön, Momme ; Cheng, Wei ; Curchitser, Enrique ; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di ; Dussin, Raphael ; Haynie, Alan C ; Harrison, Matthew ; Hermann, Albert ; Hollowed, Anne ; Holsman, Kirstin ; Holt, Jason ; Jacox, Michael G ; Jang, Chan Joo ; Kearney, Kelly A ; Muhling, Barbara A ; Buil, Mercedes Pozo ; Saba, Vincent ; Sandø, Anne Britt ; Tommasi, Désirée ; Wang, Muyin Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; ... More +

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; JISAO (Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System) Less -
Description:

Efforts to manage living marine resources (LMRs) under climate change need projections of future ocean conditions, yet most global climate models (GCMs) poorly represent critical coastal habitats. GCM utility for LMR applications will increase with higher spatial resolution but obstacles including computational and data storage costs, obstinate regional biases, and formulations prioritizing global robustness over regional skill will persist. Downscaling can help address GCM limitations, but significant improvements are needed to robustly support LMR science and management. We synthesize past ocean downscaling efforts to suggest a protocol to achieve this goal. The protocol emphasizes LMR-driven design to ensure delivery of decision-relevant information. It prioritizes ensembles of downscaled projections spanning the range of ocean futures with durations long enough to capture climate change signals. This demands judicious resolution refinement, with pragmatic consideration for LMR-essential ocean features superseding theoretical investigation. Statistical downscaling can complement dynamical approaches in building these ensembles. Inconsistent use of bias correction indicates a need for objective best practices. Application of the suggested protocol should yield regional ocean projections that, with effective dissemination and translation to decision-relevant analytics, can robustly support LMR science and management under climate change.
Keywords:

[+]

Climatic Changes Endangered Species Fisheries Marine Ecosystems Living marine resrouces
Source:

ICES J Mar Sci 78(6): 1969-1987
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab100
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4310268 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4320123

Grant no. NA17OAR4310268 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4320123 Less -
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:1bc74408c0a0d8631cca613f361f87d9ebf4649c539fa86bb7a03a37ca8b347d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/34496/noaa_34496_DS1.pdf
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Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate.

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