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The significance of probability of precipitation trends in model output statistics
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1989
[PDF-1.31 MB]
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Description:Model Output statistics probabilities of precipitation (MOS POPs) targeted toward one given 12 hour time period can vary from cycle to cycle. On occasion, these POPs exhibit a trend through successive cycles toward either increasing or decreasing chances of measurable precipitation. For example, a forecaster an a Sunday midnight shift might see a Monday (48 hour) POP of 40 percent. His or her counterpart an the Sunday day shift might see a Monday (36 hour) POP of 60 percent. When he or she comes back on the Monday midnight shift, MOS might have a Monday (24 hour) POP that has increased to 70 percent. When this or an analogous decrease happens in a set of MOS forecasts for either the Weather Service Forecast Office at Indianapolis (WSFO IND) or one of its three associated Weather Service Offices, most believe it to be an indication that they should raise or lower, respectively, the final (24 hour) MOS POP. The purpose of this brief review is to investigate that belief. In other words, independent of analyzing the forecast models, is there a statistical basis for raising or lowering the 24 hour MOS POP forecast when the 48, 36, and 24 hour POPs targeted at the same period have been trending upward or downward, respectively?
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Rights Information:Public domain
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