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Some pitfalls in pattern recognition forecasting
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1989
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Description:Two Fall 1988 upper Midwest snowstorms are examined to illustrate the pitfalls one can encounter when great emphasis is placed an synoptic pattern recognition; the first case proved to be just such a trap for the author. It is shown that when a given synoptic pattern displays (or conversely fails to display) key signatures associated with various events (i.e., heavy snowfall, severe thunderstorms, or cyclogenesis), a type of forecaster psychology (or mind set) may develop that sharply undermines an individual's ability to interpret new data and analyses objectively. This phenomenon can be termed pattern recognition syndrome. The forecast that is issued in these instances is usually some variation of the pattern the forecaster feels has been identified. The forecast results in these instances, all too often, cane up far short of what was anticipated. In the two situations reviewed, an examination of current and forecast low level moisture and temperature profiles would have alerted one that an "exception to the rule of thumb" was in the making. It is suggested that routine lower tropospheric analysis during snowfall situations may put a forecaster within reach of some very satisfying long shots.
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Rights Information:Public domain
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