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How accurate are the 3-5 day temperature forecasts?
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1988
[PDF-1.91 MB]
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Description:Anyone who has ever worked as a forecaster at a WSFO has had to make an extended forecast (EFP). The backbone of making the extended temperature forecasts are the AFOS graphics 93P, 94P, and 95P. These graphics contain a maximum-minimum temperature forecast, as well as a BOP forecast. They also indicate the deviation from normal for temperature and precipitation. Since Grand Rapids, Michigan is one of the forecast points, three months of maximum/minimum temperature data were easily obtained for analysis. It was hoped that the accuracy of the extended forecasts in predicting cold air outbreaks could be determined. Cold air outbreaks in the winter months usually mean lake effect snow for the east shore of Lake Michigan.
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Rights Information:Public domain
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