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Performance of operational objective 0-6 and 3-9 h quantitative precipitation forecasts relative to manual and model generated forecasts
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1987
[PDF-1.95 MB]
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Description:An objective quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) system developed at the Techniques Development Laboratory (TDL) has recently been implemented in the National Weather Service. The system produces 0-6 and 3-9 h probabilistic and categorical QPF's at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) twice daily (currently) for points over the conterminous United States. The forecasts are for the four precipitation amount intervals of > 0.25, > 0.50, 2 1.00, and 2 2.00 inches and for two 6-h forecast periods following 0000 and 1800 GMT. The forecasts are available on APOS under the product identifiers t'MGGFHOlE and NMCGPH02E (see Technical Procedures Bulletin No. 370) . Predictors used in the multiple regression equations on which the forecasts are based were derived from conventional surface observations, manually-digitized radar reports, localized precipitation amount and precipitable water climatologies, and forecast output from NMC's Limited-area Fine Mesh model (LEM). Separate regression equations are used during each of four seasons of the year and for seven climatologically-homogeneous regions.
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Rights Information:Public domain
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