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What you see is not necessarily what you get!
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1986
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Description:The 12-hour RAFS (NGM) precipitation forecast valid at 12Z on September 26th contained a surprise. Note the heavy rain "bomb" over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri in Fig. 1. A three inch center was forecast with coincident strong upward vertical velocities. By itself this might not be so surprising, but a brief look at other data reveals no obvious support for the precipitation center. From the 12-hour RAFS height, vorticity and thickness fields (Figs. 2-3) it appears that weak NVA is forecast over the area of concern! There seems to be no low level thermal support at all.
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Rights Information:Public domain
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