Details:

Personal Author:
Kushnir, Yochanan ; Scaife, Adam A. ; Arritt, Raymod ; Balsamo, Gianopaolo ; Boer, George ; ... More +
Kushnir, Yochanan ; Scaife, Adam A. ; Arritt, Raymod ; Balsamo, Gianopaolo ; Boer, George ; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco ; Hawkins, Ed ; Kimoto, Masahide ; Kolli, Rupa Kumar ; Kumar, Arun ; Matei, Daniela ; Matthes, Katja ; Müller, Wolfgang A. ; O'Kane, Terence ; Perlwitz, Judith ; Power, Scott ; Raphael, Marilyn ; Shimpo, Akihiko ; Smith, Doug ; Tuma, Matthias ; Wu, Bo ; Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; ... More +
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; Less -
Description:
Near-term climate predictions — which operate on annual to decadal timescales — offer benefits for climate adaptation and resilience, and are thus important for society. Although skilful near-term predictions are now possible, particularly when coupled models are initialized from the current climate state (most importantly from the ocean), several scientific challenges remain, including gaps in understanding and modelling the underlying physical mechanisms. This Perspective discusses how these challenges can be overcome, outlining concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions. Progress in this endeavour will bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established.
Keywords:
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Climatology
Numerical Weather Forecasting
Climate prediction

Source:
Nature Clim Change 9, 94–101 (2019)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
Document Type:
Journal Article ;
Rights Information:
Accepted Manuscript
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:a5ca9ace030cee89aa889111c83385e3b2f3622d9c33d5e10c66b31ff72b7af6
File Type:

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