Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015-2016 austral summer: causes and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill

Doss-Gollin, James; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Mason, Simon J.; Pastén, Max

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0805.1

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Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015-2016 austral summer: causes and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill

2018
By Doss-Gollin, James ; Muñoz, Ángel G. ; Mason, Simon J. ; ...
Source: Journal of Climate, 31(17)

[PDF-2.81 MB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Doss-Gollin, James ; Muñoz, Ángel G. ; Mason, Simon J. ; Pastén, Max

Doss-Gollin, James ; Muñoz, Ángel G. ; Mason, Simon J. ; Pastén, Max Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; CICSP (Cooperative Institute for Climate Science)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; CICSP (Cooperative Institute for Climate Science) Less -
Description:

The simultaneous use of seasonal and subseasonal heavy rainfall predictions could have provided decision-makers with useful information about the start of these flooding events from two to four weeks in advance. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts available at the beginning of November successfully indicated heightened probability of heavy rainfall (90th percentile) over southern Paraguay and Brazil for December–February.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmosphere Flood Events Forecast Skill Forecast Verification South America Statistical Forecasting Statistical Techniques
Source:

Journal of Climate, 31(17)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0805.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4320106
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:69a047caf92cddfc9612509ae50023f030927152f31f3914dd7e6e6eb272abad
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32900/noaa_32900_DS1.pdf
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