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Forecasting ice-cover freeze-up, growth, and breakup on the St. Marys River
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1983
[PDF-121.18 MB]
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Description:A 10—year time series of meteorological variables, water temperatures, and ice observations was used to develop methods for the prediction of ice-cover formation, growth rates, and decay at five sites along the St. Marys River, the channel connecting Lake Superior and Lake Huron. A site-specific heat transfer coefficient and observed water temperatures at Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., can be used to predict ice-cover formation. Standard errors in the predictions at the five sites are 30- to 60-percent lower than the corresponding standard deviations of the observations. A simple Stefan relationship with an average standard error of 8 cm over the season can be used to simulate ice-cover growth. Unlike the ice formation prediction method, ice growth prediction is quite sensitive to the accuracy of the air temperature forecasts. No one method can be used to predict ice-cover breakup at all five sites. Breakup dates are most strongly correlated with the date at which water temperature rises above 0°C at Sault Ste. Marie. This date, however, can be less than 1 week prior to breakup at some sites or may occur after breakup. Maximum ice-cover thickness in the river and maximum ice-cover extent on Lake Superior are both poor predictors of the breakup date.
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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