Serial correlation of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts

Aberson, Sim D.

doi:10.25923/m0ah-bh98

i

Serial correlation of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts

2021
By Aberson, Sim D.
Series: NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR AOML 107

Details

Personal Author:

Aberson, Sim D.
Corporate Authors:

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)
Description:

Prior studies showed that tropical cyclone track forecasts created every 24 h or 12 h were serially correlated so that only every other forecast was independent of the others. Forecasts are now initialized more frequently than those used in the earlier studies (every 6 h), requiring a reassessment of the serial correlation.
Keywords:

Tropical cyclone, Hurricane, Serial correlation, Track, Intensity, Forecast, Sampling error, AOML
Series:

NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR AOML 107
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25923/m0ah-bh98
Document Type:

Technical Memorandum
License:

https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Rights Information:

CC0 Public Domain
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:46e5001a490d3c0287e63fd1522a3decbb325b6cae07bd341fd83a5e9c86e6ecf45529a9b659e68b9d13d5788441ba7127c4dbcc071f7e2f0fe788b503eee256
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32738/noaa_32738_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 786.69 KB ]

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