A Statistical Analysis of High-Frequency Track and Intensity Forecasts from NOAA’s Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Modeling System

Zhang, Zhan; Zhang, Jun A.; Alaka, Ghassan J.; Wu, Keqin; Mehra, Avichal; Tallapragada, Vijay

doi:10.1175/MWR-D-21-0021.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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A Statistical Analysis of High-Frequency Track and Intensity Forecasts from NOAA’s Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Modeling System

2021
By Zhang, Zhan ; Zhang, Jun A. ; Alaka, Ghassan J. ; ...
Source: Monthly Weather Review, 149(10), 3325-3339

[PDF-2.11 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Monthly Weather Review
Personal Author:

Zhang, Zhan ; Zhang, Jun A. ; Alaka, Ghassan J. ; Wu, Keqin ; Mehra, Avichal ; ... More +

Zhang, Zhan ; Zhang, Jun A. ; Alaka, Ghassan J. ; Wu, Keqin ; Mehra, Avichal ; Tallapragada, Vijay Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

A statistical analysis is performed on the high-frequency (3⅓ s) output from NOAA’s cloud-permitting, high-resolution operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model for all tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean basin over a 3-yr period (2017–19). High-frequency HWRF forecasts of TC track and 10-m maximum wind speed (Vmax) exhibited large fluctuations that were not captured by traditional low-frequency (6 h) model output. Track fluctuations were inversely proportional to Vmax, with average values of 6–8 km. The Vmax fluctuations were as high as 20 kt (10.3 m s−1) in individual forecasts and were a function of maximum intensity, with a standard deviation of 5.5 kt (2.8 m s−1) for category-2 hurricanes and smaller fluctuations for tropical storms and major hurricanes. The radius of Vmax contracted or remained steady when TCs rapidly intensified in high-frequency HWRF forecasts, consistent with observations. Running-mean windows of 3–9 h were applied at synoptic times to smooth the high-frequency HWRF output to investigate its utility to operational forecasting. Smoothed high-frequency HWRF output improved Vmax forecast skill by up to 8% and produced a more realistic distribution of 6-h intensity change when compared with low-frequency, instantaneous output. Furthermore, the high-frequency track forecast output may be useful for investigating characteristics of TC trochoidal motions.
Keywords:

[+]

Model Errors Model Output Statistics Tropical Cyclones
Source:

Monthly Weather Review, 149(10), 3325-3339
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0021.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA19OAR0220186
Rights Information:

Other
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:73ad74daa0a3aadd2e41c894b7ffc153bcebd709abd49aac2f579db3787f5a97
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32705/noaa_32705_DS1.pdf
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A Statistical Analysis of High-Frequency Track and Intensity Forecasts from NOAA’s Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Modeling System

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