Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model

Nakano, M.; Vitart, F.; Kikuchi, K.

doi:10.1029/2020GL091505

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Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model

2021
By Nakano, M. ; Vitart, F. ; Kikuchi, K.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091505.

[PDF-3.36 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Nakano, M. ; Vitart, F. ; Kikuchi, K.

Nakano, M. ; Vitart, F. ; Kikuchi, K. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

The tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) strongly influences tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. However, little is known concerning its impact on TC tracks. Here, we examine how TC tracks in the western North Pacific are modulated by the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) during each month of the TC season (June–October) using the best track data and how well the modulation are reproduced in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model forecasts. The results reveal that the impact of the BSISO on the typhoon tracks varies month to month. The ECMWF model successfully reproduces this impact up to a month in advance. A simple advection model shows that the reproduction of the modulations in the TC genesis location leads to accurate TC track forecasts. These results suggest that the BSISO is one of the major sources of TC track predictability at the subseasonal time scale (2 weeks to 2 months).
Keywords:

[+]

BSISO S2S Tropical Cyclone Typhoon
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091505.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091505
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4310250
Rights Information:

CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:8d8f0ec2d744c0cc0f6a7242ad085aad3b9c81056e295e80ff47086203c23467
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32664/noaa_32664_DS1.pdf
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Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model

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