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Assessing the Influence of Large-Scale Environmental Conditions on the Rainfall Structure of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: An Observational Study
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2021
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Source: Journal of Climate, 34(6), 2093-2106
[PDF-17.63 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Climate
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Description:Understanding the mechanisms related to the variations in the rainfall structure of tropical cyclones (TCs) iscrucial in improving forecasting systems of TC rainfall and its impact. Using satellite precipitation and reanalysis data, weexamined the influence of along-track large-scale environmental conditions on inner-core rainfall strength (RS) and totalrainfall area (RA) for Atlantic TCs during the TC season (July–November) from 1998 to 2019. Factor analysis revealedthree major factors associated with variations in RS and RA: large-scale low and high pressure systems [factor 1 (F1)];environmental flows, sea surface temperature, and humidity [factor 2 (F2)]; and maximum wind speed of TCs [factor 3 (F3)].Results from our study indicate that RS increases with an increase in the inherent primary circulation of TCs (i.e., F3) but isless affected by large-scale environmental conditions (i.e., F1 and F2), whereas RA is primarily influenced by large-scale lowand high pressure systems (i.e., F1) over the entire North Atlantic and partially influenced by environmental flows, seasurface temperature, humidity, and maximum wind speed (i.e., F2 and F3). A multivariable regression model based on thethree factors accounted for the variations of RS and RA across the entire basin. In addition, regional distributions of meanRS and RA from the model significantly resembled those from observations. Therefore, our study suggests that large-scaleenvironmental conditions over the North Atlantic Ocean are important predictors for TC rainfall forecasts, particularlywith regard to RA.
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Source:Journal of Climate, 34(6), 2093-2106
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