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Assessing the Skill of Updated Precipitation-Type Diagnostics for the Rapid Refresh with mPING



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  • Journal Title:
    Weather and Forecasting
  • Personal Author:
    Burg, Tomer ; Elmore, Kimberly L. ; Grams, Heather M.
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)
  • Description:
    Previous work has shown that the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model severely underrepresents ice pellets in its grid, with a skill near zero and a very low bias. An ice pellet diagnostic upgrade was devised at the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) to resolve this issue. Parallel runs of the experimental ESRL-RAP with the fix and the operational NCEP-RAP without the fix provide an opportunity to assess whether this upgrade has improved the overall performance and the performance of the individual precipitation types of the ESRL-RAP. Verification was conducted using the mobile Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) project. The overall Gerrity skill score (GSS) for the ESRL-RAP was improved relative to the NCEP-RAP at a 3-h lead time but degraded with increasing lead time; the difference is significant at p < 0.05. Whether this difference is practically significant for users is unknown. Some improvement was found in the bias and skill scores of ice pellets and snow in the ESRL-RAP, although the model continues to underrepresent ice pellets, while rain and freezing rain were generally the same or slightly worse with the fix. The ESRL-RAP was also found to depict a more realistic spatial distribution of precipitation types in transition zones involving ice pellets and freezing rain.
  • Source:
    Weather and Forecasting, 32(2), 725-732
  • DOI:
    https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0132.1
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Download URL:
    https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32310/noaa_32310_DS1.pdf
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.31 MB]
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha256:5710e9c8069440951c0a7bccc9f633d08644632457ca396da5201e003977c4b4
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