Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2

Carbin, Gregory W.; Tippett, Michael K.; Lillo, Samuel P.; Brooks, Harold E.

doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1

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Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2

2016
By Carbin, Gregory W. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Lillo, Samuel P. ; ...
Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), 1021-1031

[PDF-4.95 MB]

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Journal Title:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Personal Author:

Carbin, Gregory W. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Lillo, Samuel P. ; Brooks, Harold E.

Carbin, Gregory W. ; Tippett, Michael K. ; Lillo, Samuel P. ; Brooks, Harold E. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; ... More +

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) Less -
Description:

Two novel approaches to extending the range of prediction for environments conducive to severe thunderstorm events are described. One approach charts Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), run-to-run consistency of the areal extent of severe thunderstorm environments using grid counts of the supercell composite parameter (SCP). Visualization of these environments is charted for each 45-day CFSv2 run initialized at 0000 UTC. CFSv2 ensemble-mean forecast maps of SCP coverage over the contiguous United States are also produced for those forecasts meeting certain criteria for high-impact weather. The applicability of this approach to the severe weather prediction challenge is illustrated using CFSv2 output for a series of severe weather episodes occurring in March and April 2014. Another approach, possibly extending severe weather predictability from CFSv2, utilizes a run-cumulative time-averaging technique of SCP grid counts. This process is described and subjectively verified with severe weather events from early 2014.
Keywords:

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Forecasting Prediction Severe Storms
Source:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), 1021-1031
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310185
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:13ab4fc98ac4cb3522d92a378b2c50c9b35eeec73e892072f14f9b047e2c5a10
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/32167/noaa_32167_DS1.pdf
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Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2

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