Projecting Northern Hemisphere Flow Regime Transition Using Integrated Enstrophy

Klaus, Emily; Market, Patrick; Lupo, Anthony; Bodner, Michael; Kastman, Joshua

doi:10.3390/atmos11090915

i

Projecting Northern Hemisphere Flow Regime Transition Using Integrated Enstrophy

2020
By Klaus, Emily ; Market, Patrick ; Lupo, Anthony ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Atmosphere
Personal Author:

Klaus, Emily ; Market, Patrick ; Lupo, Anthony ; Bodner, Michael ; Kastman, Joshua
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

Integrated enstrophy (IE) is the square of vorticity integrated over an entire hemisphere at a particular level in the atmosphere. Previous work has shown this quantity is correlated to the positive Lyapunov Exponent for hemispheric flow, and as such is a measure of flow stability or predictability. In this study, IE is calculated at 500 hPa over an area that encompasses 0° to 70° in the Northern Hemisphere. The data sets used were the 500 hPa initial and forecast fields for the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) (on a 1 × 1 latitude-longitude grid) provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA reanalyses (on a 2.5 × 2.5 latitude-longitude grid) archived in Boulder, CO. The GEFS forecast fields were provided every 24 h out to 240 h. By examining these forecasts over a year, it was found here that significant changes in the calculated IE values, as quantitatively determined, are a good predictor of flow regime transition, and 34 cases were found. We also found that the model IE forecasts identified these regime transitions reliably out to about seven days, however, the probability of detection and the skill decreased after this time. Additionally, a threshold for changes in IE was found for the cases studied here.
Keywords:

Ensemble Models Flow Regimes Forecast Models Integrated Enstrophy Ensemble Models Flow Regimes Forecast Models Integrated Enstrophy
Source:

Atmosphere 2020, 11(9), 915
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090915
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:0720729d77fcd10ab9818e7c4ab6a0e70593332c7caf54e8e6caf555ede4338e
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/31879/noaa_31879_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.17 MB ]

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