The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
Comparison and Verification of Point-Wise and Patch-Wise Localized Probability-Matched Mean Algorithms for Ensemble Consensus Precipitation Forecasts
-
2020
-
-
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087839
[PDF-4.07 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:When applied to precipitation on large forecast domains, the probability-matched ensemble mean (PM mean) can exhibit biases and artifacts due to using distributions from widely varying precipitation regimes. Recent studies have investigated localized PM (LPM) means, which apply the PM mean over local areas surrounding individual points or local patches, the latter requiring far fewer computational resources. In this study, point-wise and patch-wise LPM means are evaluated for 18–24-hr precipitation forecasts of a quasi-operational ensemble of 10 Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) forecast members. Point-wise and patch-wise LPM means exhibited similar forecast performance, outperforming PM and simple means in terms of fractions skill score and variance spectra while exhibiting superior bias characteristics when light smoothing was applied. Based on the results, an LPM mean using local patches of 60 × 60 km and calculation domains of 180 × 180 km is well suited for operational warm-season precipitation forecasting over the contiguous United States.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087839
-
DOI:
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
