i
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones
-
2020
-
-
Source: PNAS 2020 117 (20) 10706-10714
[PDF-8.66 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:PNAS 2020 117 (20) 10706-10714
-
DOI:
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:CC BY-NC-ND
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
