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A note on relationships between western Sahel rainfall and U.S. hurricane activity.
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1991
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Description:A recent research paper concluded that the probabilities of major hurricane strikes on the east coast of the United States, particularly the east coast of Florida, are greatly enhanced when rainfall over the western Sahel is abundant and that these probabilities are substantially smaller when drought conditions prevail over the western Sahel. This conclusion was based upon a 43-year sample of 1947-1989. In the work presented here, a search is made for simple, statistically significant (at the 5% or better level) relationships between western Sahel rainfall for 1947-1990 and eight types of hurricanes that are defined in the text. When hurricane frequencies for the 11 wettest and 11 driest western Sahel years are compared, statistically significant differences are found for all hurricane types studied, except for Florida landfalling hurricanes. Significant relationships are found for major hurricanes striking the east coast of the United States north of Florida, and for hurricanes of all intensities striking the east coast of the United States north of Florida. However, no significant relationships are found for hurricanes striking Florida. When the wetter 22 years are compared with the drier 22 years, a statistically significant relationship is found for the total of hurricanes of all intensities that strike the Florida Peninsula. For this type of hurricane, the largest frequency is found in the second quartile of western Sahel rainfall years and not in the wettest quartile. This makes the interpretation of the results difficult.
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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Compliance:Library
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