Seasonal forecasts of the exceptional northern hemisphere winter of 2020

Lee, Simon H.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Butler, Amy H.; Karpechko, Alexey Y.

doi:10.1029/2020GL090328

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Seasonal forecasts of the exceptional northern hemisphere winter of 2020

2020
By Lee, Simon H. ; Lawrence, Zachary D. ; Butler, Amy H. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090328.

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lee, Simon H. ; Lawrence, Zachary D. ; Butler, Amy H. ; Karpechko, Alexey Y.

Lee, Simon H. ; Lawrence, Zachary D. ; Butler, Amy H. ; Karpechko, Alexey Y. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:

The winter of 2019–2020 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from six different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January–March 2020 from forecasts launched through October–December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous midlatitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts.
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Forecasting Polar Vortex
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090328.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090328
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:fc35b05d4b3b5845fa2689bdce6bad9a5c02f46e45057ea17615efe80b4a56f2
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Seasonal forecasts of the exceptional northern hemisphere winter of 2020

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