Temperature-Driven Global Sea-Level Variability In The Common Era

Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

doi:10.1073/pnas.1517056113

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Temperature-Driven Global Sea-Level Variability In The Common Era

2016
By Kopp, Robert E. ; Kemp, Andrew C. ; Bittermann, Klaus ; ...
Source: PNAS 113 (11) E1434-E1441; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517056113

[PDF-1.40 MB]

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Journal Title:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Personal Author:

Kopp, Robert E. ; Kemp, Andrew C. ; Bittermann, Klaus ; Horton, Benjamin P. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; ... More +

Kopp, Robert E. ; Kemp, Andrew C. ; Bittermann, Klaus ; Horton, Benjamin P. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Gehrels, W. Roland ; Hay, Carling C. ; Mitrovica, Jerry X. ; Morrow, Eric D. ; Rahmstorf, Stefan Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; Sea Grant

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; Sea Grant Less -
Sea Grant Program:

NJSGC/NJMSC (New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium)
Description:

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 +/- 0.1 mm/y (2 sigma) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 +/- 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with similar to 0.2 degrees C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P >= 0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P = 0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8 +/- 1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.
Keywords:

[+]

Climate Common Era Ice-age Late Holocene Model Ocean Record Rise Salt-marsh Science Sea Level Southern Technology
Source:

PNAS 113 (11) E1434-E1441; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517056113
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517056113
Pubmed ID:

26903659
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC4801270
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR431010 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4170085 ; Grant no. NJSG-16-895

Grant no. NA11OAR431010 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4170085 ; Grant no. NJSG-16-895 Less -
Place as Subject:

Atlantic Coast (North America) ; North Atlantic Region ; Connecticut ; New Jersey

Atlantic Coast (North America) ; North Atlantic Region ; Connecticut ; New Jersey Less -
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:a0327fff865b72b006d359356eded7712bc64a8e7e4d77bae56c2bb2dfdfc88f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29248/noaa_29248_DS1.pdf
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Temperature-Driven Global Sea-Level Variability In The Common Era

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