Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Lin, N.; K., R. E.; Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1604386113

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Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Published Date:

2016

Source:

PNAS 113 (43) 12071-12075; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604386113

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Details:

Personal Author:

Lin, N. ; K., R. E. ; Horton, B. P. ; Donnelly, J. P. ;

NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; Sea Grant ;

Description:

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of similar to 3x from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further similar to 4.4x from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by similar to 3x to 17x from 2000 to 2100.

Keywords:

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DOI:

https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604386113

Pubmed ID:

27790992

Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5087008

Document Type:

Journal Article

Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR4310101 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4170085 ;

Place as Subject:

New York (N.Y.) ; New Jersey ;

Rights Information:

Other

Main Document Checksum:

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