Simple stochastic dynamical models capturing the statistical diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Chen, Nan; Majda, Andrew J.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1620766114

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i

Simple stochastic dynamical models capturing the statistical diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation

2017
By Chen, Nan ; Majda, Andrew J.
Source: PNAS 114 (7) 1468-1473; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620766114

[PDF-1.23 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Personal Author:

Chen, Nan ; Majda, Andrew J.

Chen, Nan ; Majda, Andrew J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Less -
Description:

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. A simple modeling framework is developed here that automatically captures the statistical diversity of ENSO. First, a stochastic parameterization of the wind bursts including both westerly and easterly winds is coupled to a simple ocean-atmosphere model that is otherwise deterministic, linear, and stable. Second, a simple nonlinear zonal advection with no ad hoc parameterization of the background sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and a mean easterly trade wind anomaly representing the multidecadal acceleration of the trade wind are both incorporated into the coupled model that enables anomalous warm SST in the central Pacific. Then a three-state stochastic Markov jump process is used to drive the wind burst activity that depends on the strength of the western Pacific warm pool in a simple and effective fashion. It allows the coupled model to simulate the quasi-regular moderate traditional El Nino, the super El Nino, and the central Pacific (CP) El Nino as well as the La Nina with realistic features. In addition to the anomalous SST, the Walker circulation anomalies at different ENSO phases all resemble those in nature. In particular, the coupled model succeeds in reproducing the observed episode during the 1990s, where a series of 5-y CP El Ninos is followed by a super El Nino and then a La Nina. Importantly, both the variance and the non-Gaussian statistical features in different Nino regions spanning from the western to the eastern Pacific are captured by the coupled model.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Wind Bursts Easterly Trade Wind Enso Equatorial Pacific Events Features Noise Non-Gaussian Statistical Nonlinear Zonal Advection Science Sea-surface Temperature Technology Thermocline Three-state Stochastic Markov Jump Process Walker Circulation Warm Pool Westerly Wind Bursts
Source:

PNAS 114 (7) 1468-1473; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620766114
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620766114
Pubmed ID:

28137886
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5321005
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Pacific Area ; Tropics

Pacific Area ; Tropics Less -
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:76a0734c0735cbea2e054ac30b464bc711e117b3ddd435ef6f3472d19698990b
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29229/noaa_29229_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supplemental media

htm

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