Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  United States. National Weather Service. ; Nurture Nature Center ; East Carolina University
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service)
• Description:
  When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protect life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. In 2016 and 2017, building on previous research about the use of uncertainty forecast products, and with funding from NOAA’s CSTAR program, East Carolina University and Nurture Nature Center (a non-profit organization with a focus on flooding issues, based in Easton, Pennsylvania) conducted a research project to understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities. These audiences include community residents, emergency managers and water resource managers.
• Keywords:
  Forecasting Preparedness Storm Warnings Storm Warnings CSTAR Program
• Document Type:
  Non-series Report
• Rights Information:
  Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:8aaf87b959cb60b61e39839c4b23397bc8451899c3be1117083e81f465ca556e
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28892/noaa_28892_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 7.72 MB ]