The influence of subsurface conditions on the spatial and temporal variability of tropical SST and rainfall in CFSv2 reforecasts

Shukla, Ravi P.

doi:10.1029/2020_JC016296

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The influence of subsurface conditions on the spatial and temporal variability of tropical SST and rainfall in CFSv2 reforecasts

2020
By Shukla, Ravi P.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125, e2020JC016296.

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Personal Author:

Shukla, Ravi P.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

This study examines the potential impact of subsurface potential temperature and current conditions on the sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall over the tropical region using Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014. The climatological difference of earlier period (1958-78; P58-78) and later period (1994-2014; P94-14) in January initialized reforecasts (JIR) depicts mild-warm SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific in January, but its magnitude becomes larger over there from May to August. The difference between JIR P58-78 and P94-14 depicts warm potential temperature (PT) up to 3 degrees C over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific at depth from 155 to 70 m in January therefore 20 degrees C isotherm of JIR P58-78 in January tends to be deeper in the equatorial eastern Pacific than JIR P94-14. The magnitude of equatorial undercurrent (EUC) in JIR P58-78 is larger in the eastern Pacific at depth from 125 to 35 m from January to February than JIR P94-14. Therefore, water upwelled to the surface through EUC was usually warm in January of JIR P58-78. As lead months increase, the center of warm PT gradually moves upward in the eastern Pacific than its location in January, resulting in development of warm SST in the eastern Pacific in March. The difference between April initialized reforecasts P58-78 and P94-14 depicts warm PT up to 1.5 degrees C in the eastern Pacific at depth from 135 to 35 m in April but as lead months increase, magnitude of warm PT gradually decreases, resulting in negligible difference SST over the eastern Pacific.
Keywords:

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CFSv2 Climate Variability El-nino Ensemble Seasonal Reforecasts Enso Events Interannual Variability Ocean Initial Conditions Oceanography Ocean Recharge Paradigm Pacific Prediction Sea-surface Sea Surface Southern Oscillation Subsurface Potential Temperature And Zonal Current Temperature Temperature And Rainfall Summer Monsoon Rainfall
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125, e2020JC016296.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020_JC016296
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310160
Place as Subject:

United States
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:0ada999a33c445a11cddf33099ee8f3b8facd1c8d71ca9bffc44ce5c23513097
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28706/noaa_28706_DS1.pdf
File Type:

	Supplemental media	pdf
	Supplemental media	pdf

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