The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Dates

to

Document Data
Library
People
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

Filetype[PDF-1.91 MB]


Details You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Ecological Applications
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service)
  • Description:
    Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species’ range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world's oceans. Building on evidence that early post‐settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mortality. For nine of these areas, adding environmental predictors significantly improved model performance, capturing a landings surge in the eastern Gulf of Maine, and collapse in southern New England. On the strength of these analyses, we project landings within the next decade to decline to near historical levels in the Gulf of Maine and no recovery in the south. This approach is timely as downscaled ocean temperature projections enable decision makers to assess their options under future climate scenarios at finer spatial scales.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Ecological Applications 29(8): e02006, 2019
  • DOI:
  • Pubmed Central ID:
    PMC31541510
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Place as Subject:
    Atlantic Ocean
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    PMC
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.27.1