The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts

van den Dool, Huug; Becker, Emily; Chen, Li-Chuan; Zhang, Qin

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0115.1

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The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts

2016
By van den Dool, Huug ; Becker, Emily ; Chen, Li-Chuan ; ...
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 32(1), 199-206

[PDF-441.66 KB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

van den Dool, Huug ; Becker, Emily ; Chen, Li-Chuan ; Zhang, Qin

van den Dool, Huug ; Becker, Emily ; Chen, Li-Chuan ; Zhang, Qin Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; CICS (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; CICS (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites) Less -
Description:

An ordinary regression of predicted versus observed probabilities is presented as a direct and simple procedure for minimizing the Brier score (BS) and improving the attributes diagram. The main example applies to seasonal prediction of extratropical sea surface temperature by a global coupled numerical model. In connection with this calibration procedure, the probability anomaly correlation (PAC) is developed. This emphasizes the exact analogy of PAC and minimizing BS to the widely used anomaly correlation (AC) and minimizing mean squared error in physical units.
Keywords:

[+]

Ability Distribution Forecasting Models Probability Forecasts (Meteorology) Regression Analysis Seasonal Variations Verification Ensembles Forecast Verification Seasonal Forecasting Skill
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 32(1), 199-206
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0115.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310188
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Other
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:aa408dce00878104fa50c022a2efa36b1ec26fb6dc0863c2d9bf398e787172a1
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28353/noaa_28353_DS1.pdf
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The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts

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