Persistence and predictions of the remarkable warm anomaly in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2014-2016

Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Jha, Bhaskar; Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0348.1

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i

Persistence and predictions of the remarkable warm anomaly in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2014-2016

2016
By Hu, Zeng-Zhen ; Kumar, Arun ; Jha, Bhaskar ; ...
Source: Journal of Climate, 30(2), 689-702.

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Hu, Zeng-Zhen ; Kumar, Arun ; Jha, Bhaskar ; Zhu, Jieshun ; Huang, Bohua

Hu, Zeng-Zhen ; Kumar, Arun ; Jha, Bhaskar ; Zhu, Jieshun ; Huang, Bohua Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Weather Service ; Climate Prediction Center (U.S.) ; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)

United States. National Weather Service ; Climate Prediction Center (U.S.) ; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.) Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

In this work, the evolution and prediction of the persistent and remarkable warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northeastern Pacific during October 2013–June 2016 are examined. Based on experiments with an atmospheric model, the possible contribution of SSTAs in different ocean basins to the atmospheric circulation anomalies is identified. Further, through verifying the real-time forecasts, current capabilities in predicting such an extreme warm event with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model are assessed.

During the long-lasting warm event, there were two warm maxima in the area-averaged SSTA around January 2014 and July 2015, respectively. The warm anomaly originated at the oceanic surface and propagated downward and reached about 300 m. Model experiments forced by observed SST suggest that the long persistence of the atmospheric anomalies in the northeastern Pacific as a whole may be partially explained by SST forcing, particularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean associated with a persistent warm SSTA in 2014/15 and an extremely strong El Niño in 2015/16, via its influence on atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. Nevertheless, it was a challenge to predict the evolution of this warm event, especially for its growth. That is consistent with the fact that the SSTAs in extratropical oceans are largely a consequence of unpredictable atmospheric variability.
Keywords:

[+]

El Niño Current Forecasting Models Ocean-atmosphere Interaction Ocean Circulation Southern Oscillation Air-sea Interaction ENSO Extreme Events General Circulation Models Operational Forecasting
Source:

Journal of Climate, 30(2), 689-702.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0348.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310160
Place as Subject:

North Pacific Ocean
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:1701a1896172b76cdf9eebf6b1889e3ce098b257f699754cc9b67fae5eae5d5f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28347/noaa_28347_DS1.pdf
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Persistence and predictions of the remarkable warm anomaly in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2014-2016

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