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Was the January 2016 Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm “Jonas” Symptomatic of Climate Change?
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2018
Source: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2018) 99(1): S54–S59
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Journal Title:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Description:The biggest winter storm of 2016 named “Jonas” over the eastern United States hit the mid-Atlantic states around 23 January, dumping up to 1 m of snow from Virginia to New York (Fig. 11.1a), inflicting around $1 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages and causing 55 fatalities. This motivated our exploratory inquiry about how heavy winter precipitation events overall, and heavy snowstorms in particular, have changed in the mid-Atlantic region due to long-term climate change. In the eastern United States, heavy rain- and snowstorms have become more frequent during recent decades (Kunkel et al. 2013; Lawrimore et al. 2014). Both El Niño (Smith and O’Brien 2001; Lawrimore et al. 2014) and the negative phase of the NAO (Hoerling et al. 2010; Seager et al. 2010) increase the odds of heavy snow in this region. Given these natural drivers to-gether with the regional rarity of major snowstorms (Changnon et al. 2006), identifying human-induced contributions requires model experimentation, results of which are presented here to augment empirical diagnosis of historical data.
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Source:Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2018) 99(1): S54–S59
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Rights Information:CC BY
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