The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
The Influence of Tropical Forecast Errors on Higher Latitude Predictions
-
2019
-
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 4450– 4459.
[PDF-1.31 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:The atmospheric response to variations in tropical latent heating extends well beyond its source region, and therefore it is thought that a reduction of tropical forecast errors should also benefit subsequent forecasts over the extratropics. This relationship is evaluated using a conditional skill analysis applied to subseasonal reforecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System. It is shown that there is enhanced or attenuated skill in Northern Hemisphere Weeks 2–4 forecasts when tropical short range precipitation forecasts are “good” or “poor,” respectively. This conditional skill is modulated by both El Ni urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl58870:grl58870-math-0001o Southern Oscillation and the Madden and Julian Oscillation, particularly in the Integrated Forecast System. The results presented here indicate that midlatitude Weeks 2–4 predictive skill would benefit from improvements in Week 1 tropical performance, particularly for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction system.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 4450– 4459.
-
DOI:
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
