Distinguishing time-delayed causal interactions using convergent cross mapping

Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan R.; Gilarranz, Luis J.; Sugihara, George

doi:10.1038/srep14750

i

Distinguishing time-delayed causal interactions using convergent cross mapping

2015
By Ye, Hao ; Deyle, Ethan R. ; Gilarranz, Luis J.
Source Sci Rep. 2015; 5: 14750.

Details

Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Ye, Hao ; Deyle, Ethan R. ; Gilarranz, Luis J. ; Sugihara, George
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

An important problem across many scientific fields is the identification of causal effects from observational data alone. Recent methods (convergent cross mapping, CCM) have made substantial progress on this problem by applying the idea of nonlinear attractor reconstruction to time series data. Here, we expand upon the technique of CCM by explicitly considering time lags. Applying this extended method to representative examples (model simulations, a laboratory predator-prey experiment, temperature and greenhouse gas reconstructions from the Vostok ice core, and long-term ecological time series collected in the Southern California Bight), we demonstrate the ability to identify different time-delayed interactions, distinguish between synchrony induced by strong unidirectional-forcing and true bidirectional causality, and resolve transitive causal chains.
Keywords:
- NOAA Comparative Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Organization (CAMEO)
Source:

Sci Rep. 2015; 5: 14750.
DOI:

https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep14750
Pubmed ID:

26435402
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC4592974
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA08OAR4320894
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

PMC
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/27628/noaa_27628_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 500.76 KB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:ae2e839606fe0bbadefa96b9becaa7351a1e4ac8af9ee0d1cf29ca24146e2314

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