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Scenario Planning: An Introduction for Fishery Managers
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2020
[PDF-1.29 MB]
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Description:Unpredictable events, combined with a changing climate and changes in global markets, form novel contexts in which fishery managers now have to work. Unlike scientific uncertainty, which is estimated and incorporated into management decisions, these large- scale changes often defy prediction. In the meantime, the fishery manager’s mandate—to ensure that fisheries are both ecologically sustainable and economically profitable—has not changed. The challenge that fishery managers now face is planning to fulfill this mandate when the future holds multiple areas of uncertainty, and when these areas of uncertainty can affect one another. If future conditions are full of surprises, how can managers plan for effective fisheries management in five years, let alone twenty years? The purpose of this paper is to introduce a tool known as scenario planning, which can help answer this question. Scenario planning is a method of identifying uncertainties and determining options that will meet management goals across multiple possible sets of future conditions (Peterson, Cumming, & Carpenter, 2003; Rowland, Cross, & Hartmann, 2014; National Park Service, 2013). In this document, we introduce scenario planning, provide examples of past scenario planning projects, and discuss some considerations for managers when developing a scenario planning exercise.
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CoRIS Project ID:CRCP Project 31239
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Submitted
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