Forecasting Rapid Drought Intensification Using the Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Lorenz, D. J.; Otkin, J. A.; Svoboda, M.; Hain, C. R.; Zhong, Y.

doi:10.1029/2018JD028880

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i

Forecasting Rapid Drought Intensification Using the Climate Forecast System (CFS)

2018
By Lorenz, D. J. ; Otkin, J. A. ; Svoboda, M. ; ...
Source: JGR Atmospheres 123(16):8365-8373, 2018

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Lorenz, D. J. ; Otkin, J. A. ; Svoboda, M. ; Hain, C. R. ; Zhong, Y.

Lorenz, D. J. ; Otkin, J. A. ; Svoboda, M. ; Hain, C. R. ; Zhong, Y. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) Less -
Description:

In this study, a statistical method is developed to generate probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM)‐depicted drought intensification over two‐, four‐, and six‐week time periods using recent observations and forecast model output from the Climate Forecasting System (CFS). The predictors used include weekly anomalies in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, dew point depression, and soil moisture computed over different time lags. A comparison between the baseline skill obtained using recent observations only and the skill obtained by adding CFS forecast fields as predictors shows that the inclusion of CFS model output leads to only a very modest increase in skill (about 14% increase in variance explained over the central and eastern United States). An analysis of this result reveals that the small increase in skill is due to limited skill in the CFS forecasts themselves, rather than to a time delay in the USDM response to conditions on the ground. Perfect model experiments also show that not all forecast lead times are equally important. For example, in the upper Midwest and western United States, the first two weeks account for at least two thirds of the total realizable skill for a four‐week forecast.
Keywords:

[+]

Droughts Numerical Weather Forecasting
Source:

JGR Atmospheres 123(16):8365-8373, 2018
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028880
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310226
Place as Subject:

United States
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:ceadb359a579acb28cb2dfc58d8d4368499618fbf6ee727c2790b1b0811f0a54
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/27359/noaa_27359_DS1.pdf
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Forecasting Rapid Drought Intensification Using the Climate Forecast System (CFS)

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