A study of the changing climate in the US‐Affiliated Pacific Islands using observations and CMIP5 model output
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Dates

to

Document Data
Library
People
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

A study of the changing climate in the US‐Affiliated Pacific Islands using observations and CMIP5 model output

Filetype[PDF-9.21 MB]


Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Meteorological Applications
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    JIMAR (Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    This exploratory research examines the impacts of changing climate on the vulnerable US‐Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) from the perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) coupled with General Circulation Models (GCMs). Island‐wide projections of future climate change (e.g. temperature, rainfall, and net water flux) were made using the latest IPCC AR5 GCMs protocol (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase—CMIP5) with 38 GCMs with up to 105 model runs. A review was also made of studies on model‐based future projections of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 model's results clearly illustrate that the past trend in temperature (1950–2017) is rising while the rainfall trend remains more or less static. It is also clear from the projections that the long‐term trend for temperature rise is fast and significant, while the trend for rainfall and net water flux (P‐E) rise appears to be slow and marginal. On the perspective of CMIP5 model's evaluation for the USAPI region, the temperature projections are found to be promising, while the rainfall projection potentials, despite some limitations, are also encouraging. The prime concerns for future disruptions in the USAPI region are the consequences of increasing frequency of the ENSO and related rainfall activities. The long‐term warming signal may further complicate the problem. Therefore, the currently water‐stressed islands and low‐lying atolls in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Republic of Marshalls Islands (RMI) are particularly vulnerable to El Niño‐related heat stress or drought and La Niña‐related inundations or flooding. In both cases, the future demand‐oriented climate‐sensitive water resources sector will be severely affected. A climate‐information‐based comprehensive water resources management plan (for the 2030s) is therefore essential with more detailed ENSO‐related climate information and impacts in terms people can understand and respond to.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Meteorological Applications 26(4):528-541, 2019
  • DOI:
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Place as Subject:
    Pacific Ocean
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.27.1