Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

Details

• Journal Title:
  Environmental Health Perspectives
• Personal Author:
  Semenza, Jan C. ; Trinanes, Joaquin ; Lohr, Wolfgang ; Sudre, Bertrand ; Löfdahl, Margareta ; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime ; Nichols, Gordon L. ; Rocklöv, Joacim
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies)
• Description:
  Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).
  
  Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios.
  
  Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
  
  Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.
  
  Conclusions:This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change.
  
  
• Keywords:
  Climatic Change Climatic Factors Vibrio Infections Climatic Change Climatic Factors
• Source:
  Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Oct; 125(10): 107004.
• DOI:
  http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198
• Pubmed ID:
  29017986
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC5933323
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  PMC
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:50f724e0d02a69c741a199478658cac0c1d1849135c1ab3986daf11fb21f5ce94873260478ddba0bab8aec99f70bbc08f710b53551fb5506ad1358bb8f9422ae
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26217/noaa_26217_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.90 MB ]