Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

Dresback, Kendra M., 1974-; Szpilka, Christine M.; Xue, Xianwu; Vergara, Humberto; Wang, Naiyu; Kolar, Randall L.; Xu, Jia; Geoghegan, Kevin M.

doi:10.3390/jmse7070225

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

2019
By Dresback, Kendra M., 1974- ; Szpilka, Christine M. ; Xue, Xianwu ; ...
Source: J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2019, 7(7), 225

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Journal Title:

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Personal Author:

Dresback, Kendra M., 1974- ; Szpilka, Christine M. ; Xue, Xianwu ; Vergara, Humberto ; Wang, Naiyu ; ... More +

Dresback, Kendra M., 1974- ; Szpilka, Christine M. ; Xue, Xianwu ; Vergara, Humberto ; Wang, Naiyu ; Kolar, Randall L. ; Xu, Jia ; Geoghegan, Kevin M. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center)

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) Less -
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With a growing population (over 40%) living in coastal counties within the U.S., there is an increasing risk that coastal communities will be significantly impacted by riverine/coastal flooding and high winds associated with tropical cyclones. Climate change could exacerbate these risks; thus, it would be prudent for coastal communities to plan for resilience in the face of these uncertainties. In order to address all of these risks, a coupled physics-based modeling system has been developed that simulates total water levels. This system uses parametric models for both rainfall and wind, which only require essential information (e.g., track and central pressure) generated by a hurricane model. The system is validated with Hurricane Isabel hindcasts: One using the parametric system and another using data assimilated fields. The results show a good agreement to the available data, indicating that the system is able to adequately capture the hazards using parametric models, as compared to optimized fields. The validated system was then utilized to simulate randomly generated scenarios that account for future uncertainty, i.e., amount of sea level rise and storm strength/track, as influenced by projected climate change scenarios. Results are then used in next step in the development of a system-wide, community resilience model.
Keywords:

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Climate Change Natural Hazards
Source:

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2019, 7(7), 225
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7070225
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Journal Article
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United States
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:c3f772230e96b7f0827770316d646a98df3d2257bb189716b1fc860392565e59
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26111/noaa_26111_DS1.pdf
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Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

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