Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction

Allen, T. L.; Mapes, B. E.; Cavanaugh, N.

doi:10.1002/asl.666

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Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction

Published Date:

2016

Source:

Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17: 362-367.

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Details:

Personal Author:

Allen, T. L. ; Mapes, B. E. ; Cavanaugh, N. ;

NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ;

Description:

Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of theMadden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1-2 days of skill.

Keywords:

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.666

Document Type:

Journal Article

Funding:

Grant no. NA13OAR4310156

Rights Information:

CC BY

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Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction

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