Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

Details

• Journal Title:
  Nature Communications
• Personal Author:
  Lickley, Megan ; Solomon, Susan ; Fletcher, Sarah ; Velders, Guus J. M. ; Daniel, John ; Rigby, Matthew ; Montzka, Stephen A. ; Kuijpers, Lambert J. M. ; Stone, Kane
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory)
• Description:
  Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.
• Keywords:
  Ozone layer
• Source:
  Nature Communications, 11, 1380
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e0d93cf4c876d9a89321ecf017e9a844317433494ccbf1de78d68d96d4e8f34a1ad620fbf2e2737bf73977d0e2768a7459731058cab2296c5dbfa45ee35a7152
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/24997/noaa_24997_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.46 MB ]