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Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee : Assessment of Haddock on Eastern Georges Bank for 2019
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2019
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[PDF-4.11 MB]
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Description:The total catch of Eastern Georges Bank (EGB) Haddock in 2018 was 12,495mt of the 40,000 mt combined Canada/United States of America (USA) quota. The 2018 Canadian catch decreased from 13,377 mt in 2017 to 12,216 in 2018 mt while the USA catch in 2018 was 253 mt, a increase from the 2017 catch of 214 mt. Haddock discards from the Canadian scallop fishery and the USA groundfish fishery were estimated at 5 and 21 mt, respectively. The 2019 beginning of year adult population biomass (ages 3+) is estimated at 167,476 mt. A preliminary estimate for the 2017 and 2018 year class is 11,000 million and 13,000 fish at age 1, respectively. The current age 1 estimate of the 2013 year class is 589 million fish, which is the highest in the time series (1931–1955 and 1969–2019). The exceptional 2003 and 2010 year classes, estimated at 196 million and 96 million age-1 fish, respectively, are the second and third largest. Except for the strong 2000, 2011, and 2016 year classes and the exceptional 2003, 2010, and 2013 year classes, recruitment has fluctuated between 1.6–26.1 million since 1990. Fully recruited fishing mortality increased to levels above Fref = 0.26 from 2010–2017. In 2018, F was estimated at 0.05. Positive signs of productivity include expanded age structure, broad spatial distribution, large biomass and three exceptional year classes and three strong year classes since 2000. On the negative side, condition has decreased substantially (some improvement in 2019) and size at age has declined. Assuming a 2019 catch equal to the 30,000 mt total quota and F=0.26 (Fref) in 2020 and 2021, a combined Canada/USA catch of 33,000 mt in 2020 results in a neutral risk (50%) that the 2020 fishing mortality rate would exceed Fref = 0.26. The 2016 year class at age 4 is expected to contribute 4% of the catch biomass and the 2013 year class at age 7 is expected to contribute the highest percentage at 89%. Adult biomass is projected to be 105,225 mt, at the beginning of 2021 at the Fref catch level. A combined Canada/USA catch of 18,000 mt in 2021 results in a neutral risk (50%) that the 2019 fishing mortality rate would exceed Fref = 0.26. The 2016 year class at age 5 is expected to contribute 7% of the catch biomass and the 2013 year class at age 8 is expected to contribute 41%. Adult biomass is projected to be 105,190 mt at the beginning of 2022 at the Fref catch level. Retrospective analyses indicated that the benchmark model has a tendency to underestimate F and overestimate biomass and age 1 recruitment when additional years of data are added. To account for the retrospective bias, a sensitivity forecast using the rho adjusted 2019 population numbers (ages 0–9+) for deterministic projections and risk assessments was conducted to beginning year 2022. Assuming a 2019 catch equal to the 30,000 mt total quota and F=0.26 (Fref) in 2020 and 2021, a combined Canada/USA catch of 8,500 mt in 2020 results in a neutral risk (50%) that the 2020 fishing mortality rate would exceed Fref = 0.26. A combined Canada/USA catch of 7,000 mt in 2021 results in a neutral risk (50%) that the 2021 fishing mortality rate would exceed Fref = 0.26.
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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Compliance:Submitted
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