Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

Tompkins, Emily M.; Townsend, Howard M.; Anderson, David J.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0182545

i

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

Supporting Files

2017
By Tompkins, Emily M. ; Townsend, Howard M. ; Anderson, David J.

Details

Journal Title:

PLOS ONE
Personal Author:

Tompkins, Emily M. ; Townsend, Howard M. ; Anderson, David J.
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OST (Office of Science and Technology)
Description:

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galapagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galapagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.
Keywords:

Animal Marking Boobies (Birds) Climatic Changes Emperor Penguin Impact Marine Ecology Ocean Currents Population Responses Science Sex Ratio Technology Animal Marking Climatic Changes Emperor Penguin Marine Ecology Ocean Currents Sex Ratio
Source:

PLOS ONE. 2017; 12(8): e0182545.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182545
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5568137
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

California
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:5a1e382178bf526edc2967a74b98902e9156686b56bfa67046922bd147bf44d451d60004d722aabaf7961f837f28eabb3757a353474cc678ad680e258e6ff688
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/24890/noaa_24890_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.84 MB ]

Available data set

Download bin

ON THIS PAGE

Details Supporting Files

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.