Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

Tompkins, Emily M.; Townsend, Howard M.; Anderson, David J.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0182545

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Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

2017
By Tompkins, Emily M. ; Townsend, Howard M. ; Anderson, David J.
Source: PLOS ONE. 2017; 12(8): e0182545.

[PDF-2.84 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

PLOS ONE
Personal Author:

Tompkins, Emily M. ; Townsend, Howard M. ; Anderson, David J.

Tompkins, Emily M. ; Townsend, Howard M. ; Anderson, David J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OST (Office of Science and Technology)

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OST (Office of Science and Technology) Less -
Description:

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galapagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galapagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.
Keywords:

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Animal Marking Boobies (Birds) Climatic Changes Emperor Penguin Impact Marine Ecology Ocean Currents Population Responses Science Sex Ratio Technology
Source:

PLOS ONE. 2017; 12(8): e0182545.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182545
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5568137
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

California
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:29177d3f488f3c75922d5094cf3ecf7151f67aa7e5dadacb6d056b32e21b7f95
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/24890/noaa_24890_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Available data set

htm

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